Australia's 1.2 Million Housing Target - Are We Actually on Track?

Australia's 1.2 Million Housing Target - Are We Actually on Track?

By 2029, Australia is supposed to have 1.2 million new homes built. We are already behind. But the real story is more complex than the headlines would have you believe.

I have spent almost three decades designing the structures that make up Australia's housing supply. Apartments, townhouses, mixed-use towers, detached homes. I have watched this industry from the inside, and I want to give you the honest engineering perspective on where we actually stand.

The National Housing Accord - What Was Agreed

In 2023, the Australian government brought together stakeholders from every level of government and the construction industry to address housing supply and affordability. The outcome was the National Housing Accord - an initiative to build 1.2 million new dwellings across Australia over five years, starting 1 July 2024.

When we say "dwellings," we mean every type of residential building where people live:

• Detached housing - standalone houses
• Semi-detached - duplexes, triplexes
• Townhouses and terraces
• Apartments - multi-unit, multi-level higher-density housing
• Other residential - granny flats, modular housing, prefabricated homes

The Numbers That Matter

The Accord started on 1 July 2024. According to published ABS data, the total number of dwellings across Australia as of June 2024 was 11.21 million. That is our starting point.

The initiative aims to add 1.2 million new homes by June 2029, bringing the total to approximately 12.41 million dwellings. That works out to roughly 240,000 new homes every year, or about 60,000 every quarter.

Here is the critical context most commentary misses: as of June 2024, the Australian population was a little over 27 million people. By mid-2029, the projected population is estimated to reach 29 million. In five years, we are supposed to add 1.2 million new homes while adding over 2 million new people to the country.

The average Australian household size is around 2.5 people per dwelling. Based on that, 29 million people in 2029 would require approximately 11.6 million dwellings. The target of 12.41 million leaves a healthy 7% margin. On paper, that is relatively sound.

How Is It Actually Tracking?

Our starting point was 11.21 million in June 2024. By December 2024, we reached 11.3 million. By December 2025, we reached 11.45 million.

In the first five quarters, we built 219,000 homes. To hit the 2029 target, we should have built 300,000 by December 2025. We are currently 80,000 homes short.

But here is the part that gets lost in the noise: we need 11.6 million by 2029, the target is 12.41 million, and we are currently at 11.45 million. We still have the rest of 2026, all of 2027, all of 2028, and all of 2029 to get there.

Even if we continue to build only 150,000 dwellings per year nationwide, that still gives us over 2 million dwellings completed by the end of 2029 - a solid 400,000 more than what we need for the projected population.

Can things be better? Absolutely, yes. Is it the end of the world? No.

The Real Problems We Are Facing

The numbers tell one story. The lived experience of buyers, builders and developers tells another.

1. Higher rents in established and popular areas. Young Australians and families are being priced out of suburbs where they grew up. This is not a statistics problem - it is a quality-of-life problem.
2. First-home buyers locked out of the market. Even with government incentives, the deposit gap and borrowing capacity constraints mean an entire generation is struggling to enter the property market.
3. Inflationary pressure on everything. Materials, labour, insurance, compliance costs - every input cost has gone up. The margins that used to make a project viable have been squeezed to the point where many developments simply do not stack up.
4. Taxes and government duties. Stamp duty, land tax, infrastructure levies, development contributions - these costs get passed directly to the end buyer or they kill the project entirely.
5. Good developers walking away. This is the one that concerns me most. Experienced, reputable developers are delaying projects or exiting markets altogether because the numbers no longer work. When the good operators leave, the quality of what gets built goes down.

Everything I have just listed came directly from the official National Housing Supply and Affordability Council report released in March 2026.

Why We Are Not Hitting the Higher Targets

Four structural problems have been identified across the industry.

1. Labour shortages. It is estimated that we are missing 300,000 workers. Large mining and infrastructure projects pay more, so the trades go there. Small and medium builders are left struggling to find a crew. Projects sit waiting.
2. Costs too high for projects to proceed. Construction costs, land prices, materials, holding costs, duties and taxes have all increased. Developers and funders look at the feasibility and say, "It is not worth the risk right now." When the risk-return equation breaks, capital goes elsewhere.
3. Planning and approval delays. Even with recent improvements, many projects wait a minimum of 6 to 12 months just to receive development approval. That is months of holding costs added before a single shovel hits the ground. Then you still have the entire pre-construction detailed design phase ahead of you.
4. Demand growing faster than supply. The Accord was designed to fix the housing crisis by boosting supply. But population growth meant we needed 223,000 new homes in 2024, and we only built around 177,000. We are not short of homes because we are not building enough. We are short of homes because we keep adding demand faster than supply can catch up. We are not solving the problem - we keep moving the goalposts.

The Engineering Solutions That Actually Work

I am an engineer. I deal in solutions, not commentary. Here are four approaches that are making a real difference on the projects we deliver.

1. High-rise and multi-unit developments. Apartments and multi-unit projects form the backbone of the national housing strategy. Multiple reports confirm that higher-density developments are essential to hitting the target, particularly the goal of delivering roughly 70% of new homes in established suburbs rather than greenfield estates. This is where our expertise sits. With in-house structural, civil, and geotechnical engineers, we deliver the complete engineering scope from shoring design and bulk excavation through to foundation systems, superstructure design, post-tensioned solutions, authority compliance reports, and dilapidation assessments. Every discipline coordinated. Every document issued from one office.
2. Value engineering with digital tools. From day one, we use advanced modelling software to reduce material use by at least 10-15% without compromising strength or compliance. Our in-house team reviews the entire superstructure and construction methodology - from ground works to roof level - and identifies where real, significant efficiencies can be made. On a multi-storey project, that 10-15% translates to hundreds of thousands of dollars in direct construction savings.
3. Modular and prefabricated construction. We work directly with entrepreneurs and builders to develop modular and prefabricated solutions - houses and apartments that are 70-80% built in a factory, then rapidly assembled on site. This approach dramatically reduces build time, eliminates most weather delays, lowers labour requirements, cuts overall costs, and in most cases delivers superior quality outcomes. The engineering for modular construction is fundamentally different from conventional design, and it requires a team that understands both the factory constraints and the site assembly requirements.
4. Tight, professional project management. A capable project manager is the difference between a project that runs smoothly and one that spirals into delays, cost overruns, and endless coordination failures. Without tight management, even the strongest engineering designs fall apart when stakeholders lose alignment. We deliver project management that keeps every party - clients, builders, consultants, and authorities - synchronised from commencement to handover. Clear milestones, real-time risk tracking, proactive communication, and zero tolerance for surprises.

The Bottom Line

The challenges facing Australian housing are real. Labour shortages are real. Cost pressures are real. Approval delays are real. Population growth outpacing supply is real.

But the solutions are equally real. Higher-density development, value engineering, modular construction, and professional project management are not theoretical concepts - they are approaches we apply on every project we deliver.

The Australian construction industry is not failing. It is under immense pressure, and it needs every participant - government, developers, builders, and engineers - to operate at a higher standard.

That is exactly what we intend to keep doing.